Маркетинговые исследования

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: (: 02202 28538)

29 900 .

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: 9 2007
:
: 2006
: 15
:
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on-line , . . .

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, :

  • «» , 2004-2006 . «» , .
    «» 2007 2006. - , .
    , - .
    2007 , «» 2007- . , «», – , .
    , DCF , DCF. 

     

    Ukraine's incumbent telecom operator, Ukrtelecom, retained its position in the fixed telephone market and even gained from the mobile boom in 2004-2006 due to increasing fixed-to-mobile revenues. At the end of this year, Ukrtelecom also obtained the freedom to set its long-distance (LD) tariffs independently, a measure designed to make it more competitive with mobile operators.
    UTEL's local fixed telecom services will contribute to revenue growth in the first half of 2007 since local tariffs increased in 2006. No more increases in fixed telephone tariffs are expected in the mid-term as this segment is still heavily regulated by the state.
    We believe that Internet and data and mobile services will become one of the most important revenue sources and profit boosters in the mid and long-term.
    Although the company was included on the list of companies to be privatized in 2007, the actual prospects of UTEL's privatization in 2007 are uncertain. We believe postponing privatization limits UTEL's potential, as it needs huge investments and a significant correction to its marketing strategy, which it stands to gain from privatization.
    In our valuation, we employed both a DCF model and peer comparison, but rely more on our DCF model.

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    Summary

    The Last Years of Fixed Revenue Growth

    Extensive Development Guaranteed a Stable Market Share
    Rising Revenues: Thanks to Cell Phones and New Tariffs
    Monopoly on the Deregulated Market
    Sticky FTM Tariffs to Positively Affect 2006 Sales
    2006 Local Tariff Growth: The Only Top-Line Driver for 2007
    Fixed Market Forecast Revision

    Mobile Segment: Decreasing Optimism

    Privatization: Just a Pipedream?

    On the List for 2007
    Even More Uncertainty Than Ever
    Transparency Improvements

    Valuation

    Peer Comparison: Still Traded at a Premium
    DCF Valuation

  • CHARTS

    UTEL vs Indices
    Ukrainian Fixed Telecom Revenues, USD mln
    Local Calls
    Long-Distance & FTM Calls
    Internet & Data
    Fixed Telecom Drivers, (Revenue Change, yoy)
    UTEL Revenues, USD mln
    Internet & Data Revenues, USD mln
    UTEL Fixed Revenues, USD mln
    Forecasted Growth in UTEL's Mobile Subscriber Base, mln
    Price and target History, USD

, .
- : , ,

:

: 24.04.19

67 350
:

:

: 03.08.13

71 400

:

: 20.12.12

133 500

:

: 12.11.12

95 400

:

: 30.06.11

60 000
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